"Bitcoin Struggles at $60K: Market Sentiment and Future Predictions

[TL; DR]

It took much time for Bitcoin to break above the $60,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin may surpass $74,000 if its current bullish momentum continues.

Some technical indicators show bitcoin’s bearish cues, indicating a possible downward price reversal.

Introduction

During the first half of the year the Bitcoin price used to send most investors on an emotional roller coaster due to its high volatility. Its value would rise sharply within a short period then plunge again to lower levels than before. It required crypto traders with strong mental power to keep their trades open for long periods because moments of fear and greed dominated the period.

Although the bitcoin price stayed above $70,000 for some weeks, it later plummeted below $60,000 where it has been moving sideways for a long period now. This analysis looks at how bitcoin has been struggling to break above the $60,000 mark. We will also focus on the future of the bitcoin market considering its current greed and fear indicator readings.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Moves: Why a Breach above $60K is Significant

The Fear and Greed indicator, a tool that measures an asset’s market sentiment, shows that the bitcoin reading had been in the extreme fear zone in the past weeks. One contributing factor to such high market fear is the asset’s failure to break above the $60,000 resistance level, a critical psychological point.

Read also: Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle: Aiming for $155000 Peak by August

To illustrate, although on 11 July bitcoin briefly rallied past $59,500 it failed to break above the $60,000 price level showing that there is stiff resistance within that supply zone. Nevertheless, data from CoinGecko indicates that bitcoin finally broke above the $60,000 price level on 14 July as the following chart indicates. Bitcoin Price Chart – CoinGecko

As the chart denotes bitcoin is currently trading at $66,612 although it is showing signs of exhaustion. Already, the first bearish candle is complete and another one has just emerged. Although the Fear and Greed reading has flipped bullish it had a reading of 33 during the third week of July. In fact, its reading dropped into the extreme fear zone on 29 June. That strong dip comes barely 4 months after it attained a 90 level which remains its highest reading for 2024. On that day, bitcoin attained its most recent ATH of close to $74,000 in March. Unless its recent price surge turns out to be the onset of another strong rally it may still drop towards $50,000.

Understanding the Fear and Greed Index

The fear and greed index is an indicator used to gauge an asset’s market sentiment within a given period. The reading is derived from several indicators that include market volatility, momentum, asset price breadth and asset price strength. The indicator has a reading of between 0 and 100. A low value indicates a fearful market sentiment while a high value shows a greedy market. However, there are various ranges that indicate different levels of fear or greed as the following scales show. Fear and Greed Index Readings: Forbes

It is important for investors, especially crypto traders, to track changes in the fear and greed index readings and adopt their strategies accordingly. A very high reading such as 90 may indicate a market top, signaling that the price may fall within a short period. On the other hand, a very low reading such as 20 may show a market bottom indicating that its price may rise soon.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Factors Affecting Bitcoin Price Movement

There are many factors that may determine the bitcoin market sentiment and its price movement. However, the existing regulatory environment and macroeconomic conditions often influence the prices of cryptocurrencies and the associated market sentiment. For example, the recent dip in the price of bitcoin and the associated extreme Fear and Greed Index reading was caused by a few factors that include the German government’s large-scale sale of bitcoin.

Although the German government sold a large chunk of bitcoin it seized during previous years it still has more, something that has negatively affected investor confidence. The fear that the United States may as well sell its bitcoin holdings added much anxiety into the crypto market. This is in addition to Mt Gox’s redistribution of bitcoin worth around $8 billion to its creditors.

As a fact, the United States government holds bitcoin worth around $12 billion. On the other hand, Germany still owns bitcoin valued at around $2.2 billion. Since mid-June it has sold BTC worth around $3 billion. On the other hand, Mt Gox is in the process of redistributing bitcoin worth around $8 billion. If these three parties sell their bitcoin within the same period that will lead to high selling pressure which may force its price to drop sharply.

As a result of such selling pressure some analysts predict the bitcoin price to plunge towards $50,000. To this effect, a recent CoinDesk publication cited Rachel Lin, the CEO and co-founder of SynFutures, a derivatives trading platform as saying, "The direction of bitcoin in the coming days will be determined by the selling pressure from Mt. Gox users."

She added, "The market expects most Mt. Gox users dump their tokens, but we might see a bounce back if the selling is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, if there is enough selling to push the price lower, we might be looking at the $50,000 level soon."

Expert Prediction: Where is Bitcoin Heading?

During the past two weeks the bitcoin price had been fluctuating between $53,000 and $58,200. Its price movement suggests it uses $57,300, which aligns with the Fib 0.5 level, as its pivot. What this means is that if bitcoin falls below $57,300 it may drop further towards $53,600. If the selling pressure remains strong its value may decrease and fluctuate between $48,000 and 50,000.

Nevertheless, after the bitcoin price rose above $60,000 last week it may maintain a bullish momentum and surge towards $74,000. Changelly, a crypto analytic platform, predicts that bitcoin will gain by around 11.45% to reach $73,275 by 21 July 21.

Read also: Bitcoin Price Prediction & Forecast for 2024, 2025, 2030

Investment Strategies to Use during Periods of High Market Volatility

Considering that the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be very volatile, let's discuss a few investment strategies to use during such periods.

Diversification: This is an important investment strategy for assets such as cryptocurrencies whose prices are very volatile. The investor should spread his/her funds across cryptocurrencies with different use cases and risk profiles. For example, an individual may invest in meme coins, layer-1 blockchain based tokens and leading crypto assets like bitcoin and Ether.

Employ Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): This strategy involves investing a certain amount of money in a crypto asset at regular intervals, irrespective of its price. This helps to smooth out the impact of volatility as the investor buys the asset at different prices.

Use of risk management strategies: Short term investors such as traders should employ risk management strategies such as take-profit and stop-losses. As a result, they maintain their gains when the price rises and prevent huge losses when its value falls.

Conclusion

The price of bitcoin has been fluctuating strongly since the beginning of the year resulting in noticeable fluctuations in the Fear and Greed index readings. For example, in March bitcoin had a Fear and Greed Index reading of 90. However, by early July the bitcoin had an “extreme fear” reading. Whereas bitcoin is currently trading around $66,000 there are fears that its price may fall to $50,000.

FAQs about Bitcoin

Why is bitcoin falling?

High selling pressure emanating from the Germany government bitcoin sales is one of the main causes of the recent BTC price drop. The news of Mt Gox’s redistribution of bitcoin to its creditors and the possibility of the United States government’s sale of bitcoin have also contributed to its price drop.

Is there a BTC Index?

There are several bitcoin indices that include the S&P Bitcoin Index which track the BTC value. CoinDesk has another bitcoin index called CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX).

How much will bitcoin be worth in 2030?

The bitcoin price will likely fluctuate between $500,000 and $1 million in 2030. However, its performance will depend on the existing crypto legislation and macroeconomic environment.

Will bitcoin rise again?

No doubt, bitcoin will rise again in the near future. What we may not be sure about is by what margin the price will rise. However, leading analysts predict that the value of bitcoin may reach $100, 000 by the end of 2024.