Ethereum Spot ETF May be Delayed, When Will the Bull Market Restart?

[TLDR]:

According to the data provided b Polmarket, the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETFs being approved b the end of Ma has decreased from 76% at the beginning of the ear to 7%.

Considering Ethereum's PoS (Proof of Stake) mechanism, potential price manipulation risks, and uncertaint brought about b securitiation, these factors reduce the likelihood of approval for spot Ethereum ETFs.

The approval of the Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF has also opened the door to a larger-scale adoption of Ethereum, and man signals indicate that Ethereum's value space will graduall return.

Introduction

The approval deadline for Ethereum ETF has been extended to Jul 5th, and the probabilit of being approved b the end of this month has dropped to 7%. Can Ethereum, shrouded in FUD sentiment, regain its momentum? This article will provide an in-depth interpretation to benefit readers.

The Controvers over Securit Attribute was Difficult to Resolve, and the SEC Postponed the Spot Ethereum ETF

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officiall issued a statement postponing the approval decision for the spot Ethereum ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) submitted b Galax Invesco until Jul 5th.

Once this news was disclosed, it quickl sparked widespread attention and discussion in the market. The market sentiment has shown diversification, and some investors have expressed disappointment and dissatisfaction. Some even jokingl questioned whether the SEC is waiting for Ethereum prices to reach a specific level before approving. Source: Bloomberg

Previousl, eight issuers, including VanEck and ARK Investment Management, had alread submitted their listing applications for Ethereum price-linked ETFs to the SEC. VanEck and ARK's applications were scheduled to receive responses from the SEC on Ma 23 and 24, respectivel.

Despite the SEC's approval of Ethereum futures ETFs in October last ear, issuers expect this decision to pave the wa for the application of spot ETFs and expressed their determination to address potential regulator issues during the meeting.

It is worth noting that the current SEC Chairman, Gar Gensler, is skeptical of crptocurrencies, and the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs was onl granted after the victor of Grascale Investments. Therefore, the approval prospects for Ethereum spot ETFs appear particularl complex.

Man companies still plan to submit more disclosure documents to the SEC to maintain communication with regulator agencies and seek approval opportunities.

However, due to the suspected nature of Ethereum's securities and the possibilit of opening the door to more speculative crpto ETFs, the SEC does not seem to simpl extend the precedent of Bitcoin spot ETFs to other products.

According to the data provided b Polmarket, the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETFs being approved b the end of Ma has declined from 76% at the beginning of the ear to 7%. These predictions and concerns reflect the market's pessimistic sentiment towards the approval process of Ethereum spot ETFs. Source: Polmarket

The Market Sie Potential of Ethereum Spot ETFs is Enormous

In fact, as a ke plaer in the digital currenc market, Ethereum's influence and market value are second onl to Bitcoin. Especiall in the field of smart contracts that it has pioneered, it not onl occupies an essential position in the field of crpto technolog, but also demonstrates broad application prospects in multiple industr fields.

Given this, it is natural for the market to pa attention to the approval process of Ethereum ETFs. While the US SEC is responding passivel, Hong Kong activel embraces crpto digital assets. It has recentl passed Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, becoming the onl virtual currenc financial market in the world currentl operating Ethereum spot ETFs.

The latest data shows that the cumulative sie of six newl launched crpto spot ETFs in Hong Kong has climbed to HKD 2.29 billion. Among them, Bitcoin ETF has a significant advantage, with its total asset value accounting for up to 85%, while Ethereum ETF follows closel with a share of 15%.

As of the writing date, according to the data panel of Soso Value, the Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF has maintained a net dail sub_script_ion for four consecutive trading das, currentl holding a total of 16,740 coins, with a dail transaction volume of $870,000 and a total net asset of $51.51 million. Although Bitcoin still maintains its position as a market-dominant crptocurrenc, it also demonstrates that Ethereum has stable growth potential and market recognition. Source: Soso Value

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs in the US market have experienced capital outflows, starkl contrasting the positive trend in the Hong Kong market.

The innovation and development momentum of the Hong Kong market in the field of crpto ETFs indicates that more Chinese and foreign fund companies will participate in it in the future, and the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs has also opened the door to Ethereum's larger adoption to a certain extent. Its potential growth scale cannot be underestimated.

Approval Dela: When Will Ethereum Prices Go Up?

In fact, since the beginning of the ear, after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the market has briefl excited the approval of the Ethereum ETF. At that time, the ETH price was once stronger than BTC. Still, as the probabilit of approval decreased, the ETH price weakened again and continued to follow BTC, resulting in a sluggish price performance passivel.

Amidst the SEC's criticism of the securit attributes of Ethereum's conversion to POS, there are rumors that the Ethereum Foundation ma be under investigation b a certain countr or as part of a coordinated attack b the US SEC against Ethereum, which further exacerbates Ethereum's weak market situation.

On the surface, whether Ethereum belongs to securities is the ke to the legal positioning of the US SEC. In realit, it is competing with other regulator agencies for jurisdiction.

The SEC has not et explicitl stated whether Ethereum is a securit. The previousl approved Ethereum futures ETF would make this argument untenable, while Rostin Behnam, Chairman of the U.S. Commodit Futures Trading Commission, insists that it is a commodit. Meanwhile, Patrick McHenr, Chairman of the U.S. Financial Services Commission, criticied the SEC's investigation into Ethereum and called on Congress to pass a clear digital asset regulation bill to promote innovation and protect consumers.

Considering Ethereum's PoS (Proof of Stake) mechanism, potential price manipulation risks, and uncertaint brought about b securitiation, these factors collectivel reduce the likelihood of approval for spot Ethereum ETFs. Therefore, we ma need to be mentall prepared for the further postponement of the Ethereum ETF.

Reflected in market pricing, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has not been recovered since falling below 0.05, and the grascale ETH premium rate of -24.78% has not improved. This seems to indicate that the Ethereum spot ETF is unlikel to pass in Ma, and Ethereum prices are still fluctuating weakl in the short term. Source: Gate.io

Looking at it from an extended perspective, although Ethereum has man unique advantages, market reactions are often not entirel rational and ma be influenced b people's enthusiasm and panic (FUD) towards new things. For example, the gas cost on the Ethereum network has recentl fallen to a new low in nearl six months, and the current low cost ma indicate that Ethereum network activit is about to increase, and Altcoins are about to rebound. Source: santiment

We mustnt overl worr about the potential negative impact of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Ethereum, as we have learned from the past. In fact, even XRP has not been successfull defined as a securit b the SEC. Ethereum's current status and influence are no longer easil shaken b an single institution. The Web3 and crpto innovation it represents are indisputable future trends, and its value space will graduall return.